Just as Botswana’s flagship citrus project prepares to quintuple its harvest, the U.S. market is emerging as an unexpected hurdle for the country’s agricultural export ambitions.
Selibe Phikwe Citrus (SPC), the 1,500-hectare operation envisioned as Southern Africa’s next major fruit exporter, is racing against two ticking clocks: the impending expiration of a critical U.S. trade program and newly proposed tariffs that could price Botswana oranges out of American supermarkets.
The enterprise, which shipped 5,000 tonnes of premium fruit in its debut 2024 season, expects to harvest 20,000 tonnes in 2025 – volume meant to supply markets in Europe and the Middle East.
SPC is also eyeing three strategic new markets. While negotiations progress smoothly with India and South Korea, the U.S. market suddenly appears less certain after President Donald Trump’s administration proposed tariffs on Botswana goods, although this has been temporarily suspended.
“The increased tariffs will obviously create a barrier to entry into the United States and would likely render the market unprofitable,” said SPC Board Chair Deon van der Westhuizen. The tariffs, temporarily suspended for 90 days, threaten to undermine decades of preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which currently allows duty-free entry for 6,800 African products.
The timing could not be more delicate. AGOA expires in 2025 unless renewed by Congress, and the proposed tariffs – part of broader U.S. trade measures – cast doubt on future terms. The Brookings Institution warns that losing AGOA benefits would particularly hurt landlocked African nations like Botswana that are trying to reduce dependence on diamond exports.
Yet market dynamics may still favor Botswana growers. U.S. citrus production has declined sharply due to hurricanes and citrus greening disease, with Florida’s output hitting a 56-year low in 2023. The USDA estimates America will need to import 32 percent more oranges this season to meet demand – a shortage that could drive prices high enough to absorb tariff costs.
“The U.S. will remain a priority, and we will work toward servicing this market. Yes, the 37 percent tariff level will be problematic. However, there is a massive shortage of citrus in the U.S. This may see prices increasing, which could offset all or part of the tariff,” said Westhuizen.
“We see the tariffs as a bargaining tool. The trade relationship should normalise, we already see the 90-day suspension and are hopeful that the Botswana Government will conduct successful negotiations with the U.S,” he added.
Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe confirmed ongoing negotiations for all three target markets, with agreements expected by July 2025. But Botswana appears to be hedging its bets – while 40 percent of SPC’s expansion plantings consist of varieties favored by U.S. consumers, equal emphasis has been placed on cultivars preferred in Asian markets.
The coming months will test Botswana’s trade diplomacy. Should U.S. talks falter, SPC stands ready to pivot eastward. India’s middle class is growing at six percent annually, and South Korea’s citrus imports jumped 22 percent last year.
“Botswana is in the process of finalising market access to India and Korea, and when this happens, we will utilise the access to our best advantage. We will continue working toward accessing the U.S. Should that market prove to be unprofitable, we will place the product in alternative markets,” Westhuizen said.
