Donald Trumpโs return to the Oval Office marks a dramatic turn in global geopolitics, rekindling debates about the USโ role in Africa. His first term, spanning January 2017 to January 2021, was characterised by a significant shift in approachโprioritising bilateral deals over multilateralism, de-emphasising foreign aid, and expressing skepticism toward global institutions.ย
As he begins his second term, Trumpโs policies toward Africa will unfold in a vastly different context, shaped by the rise of BRICS, Africaโs growing economic ambitions, and the USโ internal focus on reducing public spending. What does this mean for US-Africa relations, and how will Trump’s “America First” agenda play out in an increasingly multipolar world?
Trumpโs first presidency offered a glimpse into his approach to Africa. It was defined by the Prosper Africa Initiative, launched in 2019 to boost two-way trade and investment, though it was criticised for lacking depth and coherence. While the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remained intact, little effort was made to modernise this key trade framework or align it with Africaโs evolving needs, such as the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Trumpโs disdain for multilateral agreements cast doubt on AGOAโs long-term future, raising questions about the USโ commitment to Africa’s broader economic development.
The geopolitical landscape during Trumpโs first term was also marked by growing U.S. opposition to Chinaโs Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has poured billions of dollars into African infrastructure projects. Trump framed US-Africa relations through the lens of great-power competition with China, shaping much of his administrationโs rhetoric. However, this approach lacked a substantive counter-strategy. While the Prosper Africa Initiative emphasised transparency and sustainability, it failed to match Beijingโs financial commitments or infrastructure investments, leaving many African leaders skeptical of US intentions.
Now, as Trump returns to power, the global context has shifted dramatically. The rise of BRICS signals a growing challenge to US-led global institutions. Africa’s role in this new order is significant, with South Africa as a founding BRICS member and several African nations aligning with the blocโs vision of a multipolar world. Trump’s historical opposition to BRICS, rooted in his broader criticism of multilateral alliances that exclude the US, suggests potential escalations in tensions. His administration is likely to view BRICS expansion as a threat to U.S. influence in Africa and beyond, further complicating Washingtonโs engagement with the continent.
Trumpโs renewed emphasis on cutting public spending also has profound implications for US-Africa relations. During his first term, Trump repeatedly proposed steep cuts to foreign aid, arguing that domestic priorities should take precedence. While Congress often rebuffed these proposals, the rhetoric alone sent a clear message to African nations that aid was not a priority for his administration. Programs like the Presidentโs Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has been instrumental in combating HIV/AIDS in Africa, faced funding uncertainties, raising concerns about the sustainability of US health assistance. With Trumpโs second term likely to bring further fiscal austerity, African countries may see reductions in US support for health, education, and humanitarian programs.
This retrenchment in foreign aid comes at a time when Africaโs leaders are increasingly calling for trade and investment over traditional aid. The continentโs youthful population, rapid urbanisation, and digital transformation present immense opportunities for economic growth, but these ambitions require substantial infrastructure and technological investments. While China has filled much of this gap through its BRI projects, Trumpโs skepticism of large-scale development aid and multilateral financing mechanisms suggests a potential mismatch between Africaโs needs and US priorities. His administration is likely to focus on bilateral deals that prioritise US economic interests, potentially sidelining broader development goals.
Trade will remain a key area of both contention and opportunity in Trumpโs renewed engagement with Africa. While AGOA offers preferential access to the US market for African countries, its effectiveness has been undermined by structural challenges, including Africa’s limited industrial capacity and regulatory barriers. Trumpโs preference for renegotiating trade agreements on a case-by-case basis could lead to a reexamination of AGOAโs terms, emphasising reciprocity and greater benefits for American businesses. However, this approach risks alienating African nations, which are increasingly looking to diversify their trading partnerships, particularly through AfCFTA, which aims to create the largest free trade area in the world.
Trumpโs return also raises questions about the US strategic presence in Africa. During his first term, Trump expressed skepticism about the value of US military operations on the continent, even considering the withdrawal of American troops from key conflict zones. While the US remains engaged in counterterrorism efforts in regions like the Sahel, Trumpโs focus on reducing overseas expenditures could lead to a scaling back of these operations. This comes at a time when African nations are grappling with rising security challenges, including the spread of extremist groups and the impacts of climate change on resource scarcity and migration. A diminished US security presence could create a vacuum, potentially filled by other powers such as Russia, whose Wagner Group has already established a controversial foothold in parts of Africa.
The rise of BRICS and Africaโs growing assertiveness in global affairs add another layer of complexity to US-Africa relations under Trump. The expanded BRICS bloc has positioned itself as an alternative to Western-dominated institutions, advocating for a more equitable global order. For Africa, this alignment offers an opportunity to amplify its voice on the world stage, particularly on issues like debt relief, climate finance, and fair trade. Trumpโs opposition to such multilateral initiatives, coupled with his transactional approach to diplomacy, risks alienating African nations that see BRICS as a more inclusive and responsive partner.
Despite these challenges, Trumpโs second term presents opportunities for recalibrating US-Africa relations. His emphasis on bilateral trade deals could resonate with African leaders seeking pragmatic partnerships that deliver tangible benefits. Moreover, Africaโs strategic importance as a source of critical minerals, such as cobalt and lithium, essential for the global energy transition, may compel the Trump administration to deepen its economic engagement with the continent. If approached strategically, these partnerships could address Africaโs infrastructure and industrialisation needs while advancing US economic interests.
Trumpโs return to power comes at a pivotal moment for Africa as the continent asserts itself as a key player in a multipolar world. Whether through trade, aid, or diplomacy, the USโ approach will need to adapt to Africaโs changing realities and aspirations. Trumpโs first term offered a blueprint of his priorities, but the new global context demands a more nuanced and collaborative strategy. For the US, the challenge will be to balance its โAmerica Firstโ agenda with the need to remain a relevant and reliable partner for Africa in an era of shifting power dynamics.
