World Bank warns climate change could push Batswana into poverty

Extreme weather could cut Botswana’s economy by up to seven percent by 2050 if growth-sustaining policies are not put in place, the World Bank warns According to the World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report 2025 (CCDR), rising temperatures are expected to significantly reduce labour productivity, particularly in agriculture, which employs the largest share of outdoor workers. As heat exposure intensifies, the sector’s capacity to sustain output will weaken, placing livelihoods and food security under increasing strain. Beyond labour productivity, climate change is also projected to erode critical infrastructure and natural assets. Roads are expected to deteriorate more rapidly under extreme heat, while livestock yields are likely to decline due to heat stress and reduced water availability. The World Bank also see a negative impact on employment. Jobs in retail and wholesale trade are identified as the most vulnerable, as climate-induced economic slowdowns reduce consumer demand. Agricultural employment follows closely, reflecting the sector’s direct exposure to heat and climate variability. Bank of Botswana echoes the IMF in its report, as it recently issued fresh warnings about climate-related risks to the economy and financial system. In its Financial Stability Report 2025, the central bank notes that Botswana is highly vulnerable to climate change, with increasingly frequent and severe droughts posing a serious threat to agriculture and broader economic activity. The report’s stress test shows that prolonged dry spells could trigger widespread crop failures, livestock losses, and water shortages, disrupting livelihoods and slowing economic growth. It cautions that such shocks could ripple through the financial system, as lower agricultural output squeezes incomes for farmers and businesses linked to the sector, increasing the risk of loan defaults. Repeated droughts could also strain government finances, limiting the state’s ability to support the economy and stabilise the financial sector during periods of stress. As a result, the central bank has urged commercial banks to integrate climate risks into their lending decisions and to develop strategies to manage the growing financial impacts of climate change. Offering a ground-level perspective, an agricultural economist at the University of Botswana, Itumeleng Oageng, said communal farmers are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change, largely because they depend heavily on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and often lack financial and technical resources. She noted that limited knowledge and awareness of climate change further compound this vulnerability. Drawing on Afrobarometer data, Oageng said only 29 percent of Batswana reported having heard of climate change, with awareness lowest among the elderly and the least educated groups that are predominantly engaged in communal or subsistence farming. This knowledge gap, she said, significantly limits farmers’ ability to anticipate and respond to emerging climate risks. Looking ahead, Oageng stressed that strengthening resilience will require practical, affordable interventions that can be adopted at the household level. Crop diversification through mixed cropping reduces the risk of total crop failure and improves food security, while the use of drought-tolerant and early-maturing crops such as sorghum and millet, combined with flexible planting dates, has proven effective, particularly when supported by government programmes such as Temo Letlotlo. For livestock farmers, Oageng said prioritising indigenous breeds is critical, as these are better adapted to local conditions, more heat-tolerant, and resilient to disease. Simple on-farm measures can also deliver meaningful gains. These include supplementary livestock feeding, improved access to irrigation and reliable water sources, rainwater harvesting, and soil management practices such as mulching and the use of organic manure to enhance moisture retention and productivity. Together, these strategies offer a practical pathway to building resilience as climate risks intensify. In addition, Botswana is strengthening its climate finance framework. The National Development Bank is nearing accreditation to the Climate Change Adaptation Fund, while engagement with the Green Climate Fund is ongoing. At the same time, a National Carbon Market Framework is under development with support from the World Bank and GIZ, aimed at leveraging Botswana’s natural assets in global carbon markets. Capacity-building initiatives with the United Nations Development Programme are also helping stakeholders develop and trade carbon credits, with the potential to support economic diversification, strengthen rural livelihoods, and enhance climate resilience. Overall, the findings underscore the urgency of scaling up climate adaptation investments. Without targeted measures to protect workers, infrastructure, and productive sectors, climate change could significantly undermine Botswana’s long-term growth ambitions and development goals.

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World Bank warns climate change could push Batswana into poverty

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