Botswana’s 2026 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak could wipe between 0.8 and 1 percent off gross domestic product (GDP), according to agricultural economist Patrick Malope, as the government commits P97 million to containment efforts and works to reopen livestock trade channels.
The loss of access to premium beef markets threatens to compound the damage, depressing export earnings and cattle prices while increasing costs for producers and feedlot operators forced to retain animals they would otherwise have sold.
Livestock contributes approximately 1.2 percent of national GDP, according to Malope’s estimate, based on agriculture accounting for 2 percent of GDP and livestock representing 60 percent of that contribution. The wider economic impact extends beyond lost export receipts to restricted domestic sales, lower live-cattle prices and the additional costs of keeping animals on farms and in feedlots for longer.
“In percentage terms, probably a loss of about 1 percent of GDP,” Malope said, estimating the potential impact at between 0.8 and 1 percent after accounting for the significance of the beef sector.
Premium markets pose the greatest economic risk
The loss of access to high-value markets, particularly the European Union (EU) and Norway, presents one of the greatest risks to Botswana’s beef industry, Malope warned, as alternative destinations may offer lower returns.
“It will take longer for those areas where the disease was discovered to be green again and be able to export to the EU. Thus, it will really depend on the satisfaction of the importing countries and other markets such as South Africa,” he said.
The duration of restrictions and the conditions imposed by importing countries will determine how quickly affected areas can resume exports. In the meantime, the availability of alternative markets will influence the prices Botswana can secure for its beef.
Before the outbreak, the Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) operated a dual-pricing model. Cattle slaughtered for the domestic market and non-EU export destinations fetched up to P41 per kilogramme of cold dressed weight (CDW), while EU-bound beef attracted prices of up to P58/kg CDW.
Without access to the EU market, registered producers face immediate revenue losses of roughly P9/kg CDW, while prices in alternative markets remain uncertain.
Malope warned that restrictions lasting 12 to 24 months could severely weaken the BMC’s financial capacity to purchase cattle. Botswana’s domestic market cannot absorb the full volume of cattle produced locally, making exports essential to sustaining the industry.
Without access to premium markets that generate higher returns, the commission’s ability to maintain competitive payments to producers could deteriorate, ultimately discouraging cattle production.
Government outlines progress on containment
The government says it has made progress in containing the outbreak through vaccination, surveillance and the construction of containment fences, while working towards restoring access to international markets.
In the North East, the outbreak covering Zones 3C-Mitengwe and 6B is under control and has been officially closed following a three-round vaccination campaign covering approximately 35,000 cattle. The last recorded case in the region was on 16 March 2026.
A further 75,000 cattle along the Zimbabwean border were vaccinated to establish a protective buffer of herd immunity. In Kgatleng, more than 90,000 cattle have received primary vaccinations, while reported clinical cases remain contained within Mochudi East, Oodi and the Dikwididi extension.
Following subsequent outbreaks beyond the original containment boundary in Zone 11, authorities are considering continued vaccination along the border with South Africa. The longer-term objective is to re-establish FMD-free zones, with vaccination in high-risk border areas and no vaccination in inland areas.
Vaccination and surveillance are also continuing in Tsabong and the Tuli Block, where no disease incidence has been reported.
In the southern containment zone, the index case was recorded on 1 April 2026 at Ramatlabama Artificial Insemination. The last cases in the initial containment zone were recorded on 7 August, while the last case in the extended containment zone was reported on 12 September.
A total of 167,238 cattle have been vaccinated within the extended containment zone, including 23,284 at Banyana Farms in Zone 13 and 143,954 in Zone 11.
The second booster vaccination campaign in PhitshaneMolopo-Mabule had reached 75 percent completion, with 16,132 of the targeted 21,544 cattle vaccinated ahead of its scheduled conclusion on 25 October 2026.
Containment infrastructure has also expanded. A 514-kilometre containment fence has been established, comprising 266 kilometres of newly constructed double fencing and 248 kilometres of maintained existing drift and road fences.
Work on the remaining stretch of the second fence line is continuing, with 191 kilometres of bush clearing and 140 kilometres of grading completed.
The fiscal burden of containment
The government has committed approximately P97 million towards controlling the outbreak, adding pressure to an already constrained agricultural budget.
Although a detailed breakdown of the expenditure has not been provided, the Ministry of Agriculture has indicated that resources have been redirected towards disease-control efforts.
Agriculture Minister Edwin Dikoloti said the response had placed considerable pressure on the ministry’s budget, limiting resources available for other agricultural development initiatives.
Malope warned that prolonged containment efforts would continue to weigh on public finances through repeated vaccination campaigns, staff deployment for surveillance and fence maintenance.
Slaughter and trade resume, but barriers remain
The BMC has resumed slaughtering cattle from fenced farms and quarantines within the containment zone, offering some relief to producers affected by the suspension of operations.
Slaughtering was suspended following the outbreak, with the last slaughter before the suspension taking place on 1 April 2026. Operations resumed on 25 September, and by 16 October a total of 1,239 cattle had been slaughtered.
Individual livestock slaughter is also to be permitted across all zones, subject to conditions determined by the prevailing disease situation in each area.
The government has additionally approved a renewed dispensation allowing the export of live cattle and meat products, creating further opportunities for eligible farmers and businesses to recover income while supporting livestock management.
The previous live-cattle export dispensation was introduced in 2019 as a temporary measure and renewed four times over six years. It ended on 30 April 2025 after a final four-month extension, during which local producers exported more than 551,570 cattle, primarily to South Africa and Namibia.
However, the resumption of regional trade faces obstacles. South African Minister of Agriculture Willie Aucamp said Pretoria had submitted proposed biosecurity protocols to Botswana, potentially paving the way for trade to resume, subject to veterinary assessments and bilateral agreement.
But resistance remains among major industry players. The South African Feedlot Association (SAFA) has decided not to support imports of live cattle and beef products from Namibia and Botswana because of FMD concerns. It said protecting South Africa’s livestock industry and international beef export markets took precedence over the short-term benefits of imports.
The regional outbreak has also placed pressure on vaccine supplies. The Botswana Vaccine Institute has produced nearly 4.9 million doses of FMD vaccine for the current financial year to support outbreak responses across southern Africa. Botswana has received nearly one million doses, making it the institute’s third-largest customer.
