The cost of implementing infrastructure projects under Botswana’s controversial Development Manager (DM) model has surged from an initial estimate of P13 billion to approximately P56 billion, according to a government Task Team review.
A report released last Thursday warns that the sharp escalation in costs could severely constrain the fiscal space needed to implement National Development Plan 12 (NDP 12). Both the National Planning Commission (NPC) and the Ministry of Finance confirmed that the DM model is expected to affect NDP 12 funding by an estimated 40–60 percent.
The Task Team found that the Maximum Guaranteed Price (MGP) mechanism—intended to cap project costs—was poorly structured and ended up placing a heavier financial burden on the government, rather than delivering the intended cost savings.
The report compared original cost estimates from the Transitional National Development Plan (TNDP) Public Investment Programme (PIP) with the approved MGPs for the first 16 projects implemented under the DM model. It found substantial disparities between the TNDP projections and the MGPs negotiated by the Catalyst Project Team (CPT) in collaboration with the Development Managers.
In many cases, cost escalations exceeded 100 percent of the original estimates, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the justification for such increases.
For example, the reconstruction of the Nata–Maun road (Nata–Gweta section), a 100 km stretch, was initially estimated at P643 million. However, the approved MGP rose to about P1.49 billion—a 132.1 percent increase. Likewise, the Nata–Ngwasha Gate and Pandamatenga section, initially priced at P470.8 million, escalated to just over P1 billion, reflecting a 113.7 percent hike.
Only one project—the construction of internal roads in Maun—recorded a cost reduction. The TNDP had estimated the cost at P971.9 million, while the MGP was finalised at P419.8 million, representing a 56.8 percent decrease.
Cost escalations were even steeper in education-related projects. The construction of new primary schools at Kopong increased from P18.8 million to over P117.8 million—a jump of 527.1 percent. Similar projects in Molepolole and Kanye experienced cost hikes of 537.6 percent and 587.7 percent, respectively.
The Task Team concluded that the findings reveal significant deviations between TNDP expectations and MGPs approved under the DM model.
“These discrepancies, often in the range of over a hundred percentage points, have serious implications for the NDP’s affordability and the national budget. The escalation of costs, approved under the oversight of the CPT, underscores the need for stronger financial controls, greater transparency, and a robust value-for-money framework in future infrastructure planning,” the report stated.
The review also found that the DM model has disproportionately benefited foreign firms. Of the nine appointed Development Managers, seven were foreign-owned.
“Citizen-owned construction companies were marginalised from the onset—first by being excluded from DM appointments due to financial barriers, such as the P2 million monthly cash flow requirement—and later by losing access to projects bundled into DM work packages,” the team noted.
It added that this exclusion has led to job losses, business closures, and liquidity constraints within the local construction sector, undermining its capacity to contribute to national economic growth.
