Following the lapse of National Development Plan (NDP) 11 over two years ago, which faced implementation challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the government is expected to approve NDP 12, targeting investment inflows of USD 529 billion — more than 400 percent of GDP — over the next decade.
NDP 11, covering the six years from April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2023, was the first plan dedicated to achieving Vision 2036. It aimed to achieve “inclusive growth for the realisation of sustainable employment creation and poverty eradication” and focused on developing a diversified economy through export-led growth based on a cluster development model.
According to the Second Transitional National Development Plan (TNDP), which followed NDP 11, Botswana faced significant challenges prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that affected performance and progress toward Vision 2036 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The economy experienced high unemployment, poverty, and inequality. Economic growth slowed from 3.0 percent in 2019 to minus 8.5 percent in 2020.
During NDP 11, government actual revenues amounted to P353.7 billion, slightly below projected revenues of P365.1 billion, but on target at 31 percent of GDP. Expenditures, however, totaled P397 billion — 9 percent higher than the Plan’s budget of P364 billion, despite lower revenues.
The TNDP noted that while NDP 11 envisaged high spending in the first half of the plan, followed by a reduction to sustainable levels, spending continued to rise throughout the period. By the end of NDP 11, expenditures were anticipated to be 31 percent of GDP, higher than the original plan of 26 percent. In contrast, development budget spending totaled P82.4 billion, about 19 percent below the P101.4 billion originally planned.
NDP 12, being implemented by the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) administration, is anchored on the Botswana Economic Transformation Plan (BETP). The BETP aims to transform the domestic economy into a private-led, export-driven model, prioritising practical execution, private sector collaboration, infrastructure investment, and skills development.
The plan will also include the Public Investment Programme (PIP), scheduled for implementation from the 2026/27 to 2029/30 financial years. Assistant Minister for State President, Maipelo Mophuting, informed Parliament that a total of P388 billion has been proposed for development expenditure over five years. Of this, P107.49 billion (28 percent) is allocated to ongoing projects, while P287.27 billion (72 percent) is earmarked for new projects.
Mophuting said over 90 percent of NDP 12’s total estimated cost will be funded by the government, with the remaining 10 percent to come from alternative funding models such as Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), Community Public Partnerships, donor funding, and equity financing. This estimated cost includes projects in the BETP requiring government facilitation, while private sector-led projects are included in the PIP but do not form part of proposed development expenditure.
Econsult, led by Dr. Keith Jefferis, noted in its latest economic review that a P388 billion development budget over five years is inconsistent with fiscal restraint. “This highly ambitious PIP contains hundreds of public investment projects intended to transform the economy, similar to previous models that have long run out of steam,” Jefferis said. “Without a clear fiscal framework, financing for these projects is unclear, with only vague references to private sector involvement and PPPs.”
Econsult observed that few PIP projects are “bankable” in the sense of attracting private or PPP financing without substantial government subsidies. Many BETP projects likely to attract private investment are not included in the NDP 12 PIP or the P388 billion total. “Our fiscal forecasts suggest that the maximum public funding available from the development budget for the proposed PIP is around P120 billion over five years — less than one-third of the draft NDP 12 proposal,” Econsult said.
“Like the Transitional National Development Plan from 2023-25, the PIP remains a wish list of poorly prepared, inadequately costed, and unprioritised projects.” Under the TNDP, the PIP had a development budget estimate of P64.07 billion.
To keep the overall budget balanced, Econsult warned that the development budget must be substantially reduced from the NDP 12 PIP figure, subjecting projects to proper appraisal and evaluation. “If this is not done, it will lead to low-return investments, a waste of scarce fiscal resources, and minimal positive development impact,” the report concluded.
