Botswana’s diplomatic gamble with US and Russia

As global trade tensions redraw old alliances, Botswana is cautiously recalibrating its diplomacy between Washington’s tightening trade grip and Moscow’s expanding courtship of Africa. Russia’s visa push this week reflects a broader strategy to rebuild influence on the continent, even as the United States hardens its economic posture. Russia announced it will expand its visa-free travel programme to four additional African countries, a move aimed at boosting tourism, strengthening diplomatic ties, and capitalising on opportunities created by stricter U.S. visa policies, according to a Business Insider Africa report. The decision is also seen as part of Moscow’s broader strategy to limit a potential resurgence of American influence in the region. Eleven African countries currently enjoy reciprocal visa-free access to Russia, including Botswana. By contrast, the United States, a key market for Botswana’s diamonds, has tightened its visa restrictions to include travellers from Botswana. While De Beers sells rough diamonds globally, some land in the U.S., especially for engagement rings, though they face strong competition from lab-grown diamonds which are projected to dominate U.S. volume. According to International Merchandise Trade Statistics for October 2025, diamonds were the dominant export commodity group, accounting for 54.0 percent (P2,145.4 billion) of total exports. The statistics show that top export destinations within Asia were the UAE, India, and China, which received 23.4 percent (P927.8 million), 13.1 percent (P519.6 million), and 12.2 percent (P483.9 million) of total exports, respectively. Diamonds were the major commodity destined for both the UAE and India, at 99.0 percent (P918.4 million) and 99.5 percent (P517.0 million), respectively. India is consistently the top exporter of diamonds to the United States, supplying significant value in both rough and polished diamonds. Belgium and Israel are also major players, though India has led as the largest source for polished stones for many years. National Jeweler, a U.S.-based industry publication, reported in September 2025 that since August 27, exports of polished diamonds from India to the United States have virtually come to a standstill, impacted by a new 50 percent tariff levied at the point of entry. The report stated that total cut and polished diamond exports from India to countries worldwide dropped 13 percent to $4.88 billion between April and August 2025, compared with $5.62 billion in the same period in 2024. The decline of direct exports to the U.S. was steeper, 50 percent in value terms over the same period, from $2.20 billion to $1.08 billion. Botswana has been seeking preferential access to the United States, as its diamond sector faces mounting economic headwinds. Diamonds mined, cut, and polished in Botswana currently face a 15 percent import tariff when entering the United States, while rough stones attract a 37 percent duty. This week, the U.S. Supreme Court was due to deliver its rulings on tariffs introduced by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). However, it skipped the ruling, creating uncertainty around these tariffs. On the international level, the decision could reshape U.S. trade policy, which has involved levying tariffs on major trading partners and disrupting global commerce, Forbes reported. International economists have previously warned that major tariffs against many countries could damage international trust, with countries questioning whether the U.S. is reliable and stable. Botswana is reportedly expanding its economic and diplomatic engagement with Russia, a long-standing geopolitical rival of the United States, as negotiations on tariffs continue. According to a Business Insider Africa report, Botswana’s government has announced plans to open an embassy in Moscow and is inviting Russian investors to explore opportunities in the country’s mining sector, including diamonds and rare earths. Miners say n o commercially viable deposits of rare earths have yet been identified although there are some traces. It takes ten years or more to explore before mining. Rapaport cited Foreign Minister Phenyo Butale, who told Russia’s state news agency that Botswana hopes to utilize Russia’s knowledge and expertise in large-scale mining projects and processing industries to create added value, areas where opportunities for cooperation are seen. Some observers argue that Russia, like any other country, has long been able to apply for prospecting licences in Botswana. But for diamonds, they question the strategic value such engagement offers when Russia already possesses vast diamond resources. From this perspective, they say Russia may not be viewed as a natural market for Botswana’s diamonds. Botswana and Russia rank among the world’s leading diamond producers, frequently alternating between first place by production value and volume. Critics further caution that the relationship may benefit Russia more than Botswana, warning that closer cooperation could complicate Botswana’s efforts to secure much-needed tariff concessions on diamond exports to the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump previously has openly threatened to punish countries that do business with the US’ enemies. Washington’s warning to countries trading with Iran is tightening the screws on several African economies, as the U.S. hints it could raise tariffs and reconsider preferential trade access for partners it considers out of step with its foreign-policy goals. According to Business Insider Africa, the proposed tariff would be imposed on top of existing US trade restrictions that are already weighing on African exporters. Under president Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, several African economies face higher-than-average US import duties. South Africa is subject to tariffs of up to 30 percent on certain products, Nigeria about 14–15 percent, Ghana between 10–15 percent, while Kenya and Tanzania face roughly 10 percent. Most other African countries are charged a standard baseline tariff of 10 percent. For nations that continue trading with Iran, including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania and Somalia, the new policy would add a further 25 percent duty on all exports to the US, significantly eroding their price competitiveness in the American market, Business Insider Africa reported. Trump has also previously suggested using the dollar as a tool to pressure countries into aligning with American priorities, while Washington has already demonstrated its willingness to weaponise financial sanctions against Russia. Ahead of returning to office, Trump also pledged to impose 100 percent tariffs on imports from countries that shift away from using the U.S. dollar in international trade. However, economists caution that the more unpredictable U.S. policy becomes, the more other countries may accelerate efforts to seek alternatives to the dollar. It remains to be seen how Botswana will navigate its relationships with both the United States and Russia in this shifting geopolitical landscape.

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Botswana’s diplomatic gamble with US and Russia

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