Experts Urge Skills Alignment and Decent Work Focus as Budget Targets 512,000 Jobs

Rapid project rollout without proper skills planning could lead companies to rely on foreign workers Job creation should be evaluated through the lens of decent work Labour experts have cautioned that Botswana’s national budget should not be judged solely by growth projections or ambitious job targets, warning that without enforceable decent work standards, clear sectoral plans, and skills alignment, employment figures risk remaining symbolic rather than transformative. Reviewing the budget speech, Abel Mpango, a labour economist at the Institute for Labour and Employment Studies (ILES), said the true measure of the budget lies less in narrative coherence and more in whether it delivers verifiable job creation. Although the budget acknowledges the need to transition toward a private-sector-driven, productivity-centred growth model, Mpango questioned whether this shift will produce jobs in the volume, quality, and timeframe required to absorb new labour market entrants, particularly young people. Even with total output projected to rebound by 3.1 percent in 2026, he noted, employment expansion may be limited due to the economy’s low employment elasticity, meaning economic growth does not automatically translate into job creation. “If new investment flows disproportionately into capital-intensive activities, import-heavy procurement, or highly automated production, job creation will remain limited,” Mpango said. Focusing on the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP), expected to create 512,000 jobs by 2036, Mpango said outcomes will depend on how projects are implemented. Although BETP targets labour-intensive sectors, actual labour intensity will be shaped by procurement and execution choices. “If procurement favors large firms with high mechanization and imported labour and inputs, labour intensity declines. If projects are structured into manageable lots and local contractors are enabled, labour intensity rises,” he said. Mpango also warned that rapid project rollout without proper skills planning could lead companies to rely on foreign workers, reducing opportunities for citizens. He said localisation must be embedded in BETP through clear citizen employment targets, youth hiring quotas, development of local suppliers, domestic value-chain participation, structured skills transfer, and apprenticeship systems. “If localisation is weak, BETP can still achieve infrastructure delivery and investment figures, but domestic employment may remain limited, with opportunities leaking abroad,” he said. The budget allocates P1.85 billion for infrastructure maintenance, but Mpango cautioned that such projects often generate temporary, insecure work unless labour protections are written into contracts. In tourism, P362 million has been earmarked for sites and concession areas in Ngamiland and the Makgadikgadi National Park. Eleven lease renewals covering 27 lodges in Ngamiland have unlocked additional investment estimated at P800 million while protecting more than 1,500 existing jobs. Mpango noted, however, that tourism and construction are historically prone to wage suppression and informality, necessitating strong labour monitoring during project rollout. Adding perspective, independent labour economist Edward Tswaipe said job creation should be evaluated through the lens of decent work, which encompasses employment security, social dialogue, and social protections. “Assessing employment quality requires examining not just the number of jobs, but their stability and working conditions,” Tswaipe said. He observed that the budget emphasises quantity over quality, noting that short-term employment may inflate job creation figures without improving workers’ livelihoods. Tswaipe called for a coherent policy framework linking job creation with the decent work agenda. He pointed to institutional weaknesses, including the closure of the Decent Work Office at the Ministry of Finance, which has hindered alignment between investment initiatives and enforceable labour protections. He advocated for a dedicated structure to house and coordinate the Decent Work Country Programme, ensuring integration across key ministries such as trade, labour, and finance. Tswaipe stressed the need for effective inspections to verify job duration and compliance with labour standards, noting that fragmented regulatory enforcement often allows employers to evade obligations. Describing BETP’s projected 512,000 jobs as a “grand target,” Tswaipe said a single aggregate figure is insufficient to assess employment creation. Sector-specific projections are essential to determine where jobs will be created and whether they align with national development priorities. Without them, planning is weak and confidence in targets is undermined. Sectoral clarity, he added, allows for accurate targeting and evaluation. Projections should extend beyond single-year targets to show growth trajectories over several years, indicating how employment will expand and whether it will be sustainable. Sectors such as engineering and infrastructure require specialized technical expertise, Tswaipe said. The government must assess outputs from public and private training institutions, including the number of graduates in relevant fields, to ensure supply matches projected demand. From a labour perspective, Botswana Public Employees Union (BOPEU) Secretary General Ketlhapeleng Karabo said BETP fails to clearly outline criteria for assessing the quality of jobs. He stressed the importance of considering job lifespan to distinguish between short-term and permanent positions. “Investors often bring their own technical personnel, citing a lack of local skills. Before implementing a programme of this scale, a comprehensive skills audit is essential,” Karabo said. Such an audit would evaluate the availability, experience, and geographic distribution of skills, enabling local training institutions to align programs with BETP’s strategic direction. Without proper skills audits, sectoral projections, and integrated planning between job creation and training systems, he concluded, employment targets risk remaining largely symbolic.

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Experts Urge Skills Alignment and Decent Work Focus as Budget Targets 512,000 Jobs

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