Behind The P25bn Dream

Drawing on international examples from Dubai, Kigali, London and beyond , Staff Writer Kitso Ramono assesses the prospects and pitfalls of Botswana's latest megaproject. There are encouraging signs that Botswana is increasingly positioning itself as a destination for international business and investment events. In recent years, the country has hosted major regional and international gatherings, including the Forbes Under 30 Summit Africa, the U.S.-Africa Business Summit, the Africa Tourism Leadership Forum, and several high-profile mining, investment, and policy conferences. These events demonstrate growing international visibility and show that Botswana can attract global audiences. Botswana is now entering a competitive phase. President Duma Boko has officially paved the way for the Botswana World Trade Centre, a flagship development that forms part of the proposed New Botswana City in Gaborone's Airport City Special Economic Zone (SEZ). Government investment arm Botswana Development Corporation (BDC) says it has contributed land valued at approximately P620 million in exchange for a 5 percent golden equity stake, with a stated long-term objective of increasing public ownership to 26 percent. O riginated in the United Arab Emirates, Albaddad Holding is providing 100 percent of the direct capital funding for the development through its global balance sheet.

At approximately P25.5 billion, the project represents a significant investment relative to the size of Botswana's economy. It ranks among the larger urban development projects undertaken in Africa, although experts note it is still considerably smaller than mega-city developments such as Eko Atlantic in Nigeria, Konza Technopolis in Kenya, King Abdullah Economic City in Saudi Arabia, or Lusail City in Qatar. BDC says the development will include a convention and exhibition centre, international hotels, and retail and hospitality facilities.

Demand

In an interview, Sethebe Manake, a capital strategist and property economist says convention centres, hotels, and hospitality infrastructure are ultimately demand-driven assets. The success of the project, she notes, "will depend on creating new economic activity rather than simply redistributing existing activity within Gaborone."

She listed the key drivers of success as sustained growth in:

· International business travel

· Regional trade activity

· Foreign direct investment

· Conference and exhibition demand

· Airline connectivity

· Corporate and government events

"The project makes economic sense if it succeeds in attracting businesses, investors, conferences, institutions, and industries that would not otherwise establish themselves in Botswana," Manake said. She warned that if it merely relocates existing demand from one location to another, the economic impact will be substantially reduced. "The opportunity exists for Botswana to position itself as a preferred destination for regional business engagement, but long-term success will require a consistent pipeline of events and business activity rather than occasional flagship conferences."

Competition

Botswana is entering a space occupied by established convention destinations such as Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban, Kigali, and Nairobi. These cities have spent years building brands, infrastructure, business networks, and investment ecosystems.

Experts warn that the challenge for Botswana will not simply be constructing high-quality facilities, but creating compelling reasons for businesses, investors, and organisations to choose it over competing destinations.

Manake believes the objective should not be to replicate Johannesburg, Cape Town, Nairobi, or Kigali, given that these cities have spent decades developing their business ecosystems. Instead, she says Botswana's opportunity lies in differentiation.

"In an increasingly uncertain global environment, investors and businesses place significant value on political stability, regulatory certainty, institutional credibility, and ease of doing business." Observers agree that Botswana already performs strongly in many of these areas.

Risks

Around the world, developments such as Eko Atlantic in Nigeria, Konza Technopolis in Kenya, King Abdullah Economic City in Saudi Arabia, Lusail City in Qatar, Canary Wharf in London, and the Dubai International Financial Centre were all conceived as transformative projects intended to reshape economic activity, attract investment, and create new commercial ecosystems.

Manake says some have become globally recognised success stories, while others have taken significantly longer than anticipated to mature. "The common lesson from all of them is that the greatest risks are rarely related to construction itself," she said, adding that the real challenge is creating sufficient economic activity to support the infrastructure once it has been built.

For Botswana, Manake sees the most significant commercial risks as: execution and delivery risk, competitiveness risk, demand and absorption risk, and economic ecosystem risk.

Success indicators

"Globally, the most successful developments create entire ecosystems rather than standalone real estate assets," Manake says. "Canary Wharf succeeded because it became a major financial centre. Dubai International Financial Centre succeeded because it attracted global financial institutions. Kigali's convention-led strategy has succeeded because it was supported by broader national policies aimed at positioning Rwanda as a business destination."

Another key measure of success, she believes, will be long-term economic transformation. "The ultimate measure of success will therefore not be the number of buildings completed, but the volume of investment attracted, businesses established, jobs created, and economic activity generated over the next twenty years," she says. She adds that the greater risk is failing to align development delivery with the pace at which market demand, investment activity, and economic ecosystems evolve.

"If that alignment is achieved, the Botswana World Trade Centre and New Botswana City could join the ranks of successful international business districts that have transformed their host economies."

Anchor tenants are equally important. Whether they are multinational corporations, financial institutions, technology firms, hotel operators, international organisations, or major government-linked entities, Manake says anchor occupiers create confidence for other investors and tenants. "They help establish an ecosystem of economic activity that attracts additional businesses over time."

Jobs

Based on current employment impact estimates, BDC says New Botswana City is expected to support approximately 14,000 to 21,000 jobs during construction. This includes roughly 6,000 to 9,000 direct roles and 8,000 to 12,000 indirect opportunities across areas such as building materials, transport and logistics, food supply, catering, equipment rental, security, cleaning, and facility support.

Once fully operational, the project is expected to support 25,000 to 37,500 total direct and indirect jobs, including approximately 8,000 to 12,500 permanent direct jobs across the exhibition centre, business district, office towers, residential communities, hotels, retail, restaurants, cafes, lifestyle facilities, the Diamond Museum, security, maintenance, facility management, and support services.

BDC says the majority of construction-phase positions are expected to be filled by Botswana citizens through recruitment, training, and workforce development programmes.

"Beyond direct employment, the development is expected to create opportunities for local suppliers, SMMEs, and auxiliary businesses across hospitality, tourism, retail, transport, food supply, logistics, professional services, and business support," BDC says.

International experience suggests that developments of this scale can indeed generate tens of thousands of jobs over their lifecycle. However, Manake says those jobs are typically created over many years rather than immediately upon completion.

For example:

· King Abdullah Economic City (Saudi Arabia) has attracted billions of dollars in investment and created substantial employment opportunities, but development has occurred over more than a decade.

· Konza Technopolis (Kenya) has projected tens of thousands of future jobs, yet implementation has progressed gradually over multiple phases.

· Eko Atlantic (Nigeria) has generated significant construction and economic activity, but development continues years after its initial launch.

· Dubai's major mixed-use developments , often cited as benchmarks, were delivered through carefully phased programmes supported by exceptionally strong population growth, tourism demand, and international investment flows.

"Large developments rarely create their full employment impact within a short timeframe. Job creation generally follows occupancy, business formation, investment attraction, and economic activity rather than construction alone."

Hence, Manake sees another key indicator of success as whether the project is creating new demand or simply capturing existing demand. She says when the Dubai International Financial Centre was established, it was not designed to relocate businesses from elsewhere in Dubai. It was created to attract entirely new financial institutions to the region. Similarly, she says Canary Wharf succeeded because it expanded London's commercial capacity rather than merely redistributing existing tenants.

BDC had not responded to questions from the Business Weekly & Review, which sought amongst other things to ascertain the project's projected occupancy rate and the level of market demand for the development.