DUST CLOUDS BOTSWANA’S EXPORT-LED AGRICULTURE STRATEGY

The country’s emerging citrus export industry is facing mounting uncertainty as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt fuel supplies, fertiliser costs and export logistics, just as the 2026 harvest season begins. Chairperson of Selebi-Phikwe Citrus (SPC), Deon Van Westhuizen, warned that even if the immediate conflict is resolved within weeks, the economic and logistical consequences could linger for months, placing sustained pressure on Botswana’s newest agricultural export sector. “The war and resultant effects on our business are obviously of concern and something that we must actively manage as best we can. The best-case scenario is that this war is stopped within the next two to three weeks. However, even if it is, the damage to infrastructure in the Middle East will probably affect us for at least six to twelve months after cessation of hostilities,” Van Westhuizen said. According to him, Selebi-Phikwe Citrus is entering a critical phase of its harvest cycle, with significant export volumes expected to begin moving in May. Any disruption to shipping routes, fuel supply chains or input costs will affect the farm’s profitability and broader export ambitions. “There are a number of potential impacts and risks to the business: input costs, logistics costs to local, regional and international markets, interruption of supply of fuel or materials, as well as access to markets and the ability of consumers to purchase products,” Van Westhuizen told The Business Weekly & Review. The Middle East conflict is already raising concerns about fertiliser availability and pricing. According to SPC, approximately 5 percent to 12 percent of global fertiliser raw materials are produced in the wider Middle East, with sulphurproduction accounting for roughly 30 percent. These materials are essential for agricultural production, particularly for large-scale citrus operations that depend on consistent fertiliserapplicati on cycles. However, Van Westhuizen indicated that cost inflation, rather than outright shortages, currently poses the greater risk. “Given the information at hand, we are not as concerned about the availability of fertiliser as we are about cost,” he said. “The oil and fuel situation is quite transparent, with prices being reported daily. Availability of fuel is paramount for the running of our operations and distribution to market.” Van Westhuizen noted that fuel, fertilisers and agrochemicals together account for approximately 25 percent of Selebi-PhikweCitrus’ input costs, meaning any sustained increase in global oil prices could significantly compress margins. While much of the fertilisers and agrochemicals required for the 2026 season has already been procured or applied, SPC expects rising fuel costs to cascade through the entire value chain, affecting farming operations, irrigation, packaging production, cold storage and transportation to export markets. “The impact on the 2027 season remains to be seen. The remaining 2026 application of fertilisers and chemicals will establish the 2027 crop. This process starts in June and July 2026. A lot can change by then,” Van Westhuizen noted. The farm’s geographic position is also a challenge. According to Van Westhuizen, SPC exports primarily through the Durban port in South Africa, requiring long-distance road transport before products reach international shipping routes. Any rise in fuel or shipping costs disproportionately affects Botswana’s citrus exports compared to producers located closer to ports. “The overall effect on Selebi-Phikwe Citrus will be significant,” he said. “The operation is especially vulnerable given the long distance to the Durban port, which is currently its main export harbour.”

Shipping disruptions are also emerging as a major concern. Ports along the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman have been affected, prompting cargo to be rerouted through Red Sea ports. While alternative routes remain available, they often involve longer transit times, higher costs and additional logistical risk. “From a marketing point of view, the Middle East is obviously affected. Shipping to the northern ports is problematic, with the southern ports now becoming a key route to market,” Van Westhuizen explained. “These alternatives come at significant cost and risk. Marketing, logistics and shipping companies are working on alternative strategies and routes.”

“Where needed, the product will be directed to other markets available to Botswana. Bottom line, we will be heavily impacted,” he added. Although citrus exports to the Middle East are under pressure, Botswana’s ability to redirect exports to alternative premium markets remains limited. Van Westhuizen noted that Botswana currently has access to only about 20 percent of the premium markets it is targeting, with major destinations such as India, China and the United States still largely inaccessible. “This severely limits our ability to divert product in situations like this and places us at a distinct disadvantage compared to South Africa and Zimbabwe,” he said. Despite these risks, Selebi-Phikwe Citrus is maintaining its expansion plans. The project is preparing a further multi-million-pula expansion that will bring total capital investment to approximately P750 million, including a planned P200 million expansion following the initial P500 million investment. The operation, located near Selebi-Phikwe, has already developed about 880 hectares under irrigation and planted approximately 1.1 million citrus trees, positioning it as Botswana’s largest citrus development. The farm’s rapid growth has already demonstrated its export potential. In 2025, production quadrupled from approximately 5,000 tonnes in its first season to about 22,000 metric tonnes in its second season. The majority of that harvest was exported to key international markets, including the Middle East, the European Union, Canada and South Africa. Prior to the establishment of Selebi-Phikwe Citrus, Botswana had no meaningful citrus export trade. The project has effectively created a new agricultural export industry while simultaneously working to secure market access and build international trade relationships. However, Van Westhuizen pointed out that current geopolitical tensions highlight the vulnerability of Botswana’s export-led agriculture strategy to regional and global instability. Economists have also warned that agriculture is among the sectors most exposed to global supply chain disruptions. Tshepiso Gaetsewe recently noted that rising fuel prices and supply chain disruptions could increase food prices, particularly if fertiliser supply chains are affected. Agriculture is highly fuel-sensitive due to mechanisation, irrigation, fertilisertranspor tation, cold storage requirements and distribution logistics. Any increase in energy costs translates directly into higher production costs and margin pressure for producers. Meanwhile, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could worsen access to fertilisers, particularly for developing economies. In its report titled ‘Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development’, UNCTAD said escalating conflict in the region is increasingly influencing fertiliser markets and agricultural supply chains. “The escalation of the conflict affecting the Hormuz region is increasingly reflected in fertiliser markets, linking disruptions in energy and shipping to agricultural markets, future food supply and trade,” UNCTAD said. For Botswana, the implications extend beyond citrus exports. Rising agricultural costs could feed into broader food inflation, placing additional pressure on consumers and reinforcing the country’s vulnerability to global supply disruptions. Van Westhuizen acknowledged that citrus pricing is likely to rise in the short term. “With significant input and transport cost increases, it is to be expected that the cost of citrus will increase in the short term. Hopefully not the medium or long term,” he said.