The Ministry of Minerals and Energy says the National Petroleum Fund (NPF) can no longer fully cushion pump prices due to steep and rising crude oil costs, although it continues to provide some relief to consumers amid tensions in the Middle East.
The fund is mandated under the NPF Order to purchase petroleum products for government strategic stocks, stabilise prices in the oil industry, and cover insurance premiums for strategic fuel installations and reserves.
Responding to a parliamentary question on the fund’s status amid rising fuel prices, Minerals and Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo said sustained increases in global crude oil prices were placing growing pressure on the NPF, affecting its ability to cushion consumers while also meeting security-of-supply obligations.
For the 2025/26 financial year, the only upward fuel price adjustment was implemented in September 2025. However, the ministry said this did not indicate price stability.
Between June and September 2025, the actual cost of importing fuel exceeded regulated pump prices, creating a cumulative under-recovery of P544.5 million owed to oil companies due to delayed price adjustments, the ministry said.
The minister said the NPF has been covering these gaps. Over the past three months, the fund has disbursed P262.1 million and still owes a further P350.6 million in outstanding claims.
In addition, the fund has accumulated P150.8 million over the past two months.
The ministry said that although recent fuel price increases were partly cushioned, importers were forced to buy fuel at sharply higher global prices from early March while selling at lower regulated prices for about three weeks before adjustments were made.
As a result, the NPF will absorb these under-recoveries—the difference between cost-reflective prices and regulated pump prices—estimated at more than P714 million for March alone.
Between February and March 2026, average international crude oil prices rose by 40.16 percent, while daily prices increased by 38.7 percent between March 2 and March 26.
Refined product prices also climbed sharply over the period. Unleaded petrol (ULP 95) rose nearly 60 percent, from US$79.70 per barrel to US$127.29 per barrel.
Diesel increased by 91 percent, from US$91.18 per barrel to US$173.93 per barrel, while illuminating paraffin rose 111 percent, from US$90.97 per barrel to US$191.87 per barrel.
