President Duma Boko set the tone by targeting an increase in agriculture’s contribution to GDP from about two percent to six percent over the medium term. The shift reframes agriculture as a commercial, productivity-driven sector capable of supporting employment, exports and industrial linkages. This renewed focus has triggered policy reforms, budget allocations and institutional interventions across value chains, while opening space for emerging segments such as industrial hemp and export-oriented citrus.
However, 2025 has also laid bare deep structural weaknesses, including payment failures, water constraints, climate volatility, financing gaps and persistent inefficiencies within agricultural institutions.
Keletso Setimela, Head of Business Banking at Absa Bank Botswana, describes agribusiness sentiment in 2025 as initially neutral, gradually shifting toward cautious optimism. Improved rainfall, policy support and renewed attention to agricultural credit helped stabilise food inflation at around 5–6 percent and created financing opportunities, although risks linked to climate variability, high input costs and import dependence remain pronounced.
“The sector remains measured but positively evolving, supported by reforms and improved production, while maintaining vigilance against structural and climate-related challenges,” he told The Business Weekly & Review.
Crop production staged a recovery in 2025 after an El Niño-induced drought sharply reduced output the previous year, but the rebound was overshadowed by payment failures and persistent structural weaknesses. Improved rainfall between November 2024 and April 2025 restored yields close to seasonal norms across rain-fed staples such as maize, sorghum and pulses, although the sector remained highly exposed to weather variability.
The production rebound was undercut by delayed payments at the Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board (BAMB), with more than P260 million owed to grain farmers, causing liquidity strain ahead of the 2025/26 planting season. Payments began in December 2025, with P206 million released, fully settling farmers owed under P1 million and paying about 74 percent to larger creditors. Beyond cash-flow constraints, tensions between farmers and BAMB intensified, with growing calls for institutional reform, improved governance and a clearer commercial mandate.
Despite occasional sorghum surpluses, Botswana remains heavily reliant on cereal imports, mainly maize, rice and wheat/meslin, totalling P196 million in August 2025. Despite this import dependence, retail maize meal prices remained stable between September and October 2025, aided by falling maize prices in South Africa, Botswana’s primary supplier, according to the FAO.
Livestock remains central to Botswana’s agricultural growth plans, with the government targeting an increase in the national cattle herd from 1.7 million to five million by 2030. However, the Botswana National Beef Producers Union (BNBPU) views three million as a more realistic medium-term goal, cautioning that achieving even this would require major reforms in production systems, rangeland management, infrastructure and tailored financing amid rising climate challenges.
Productivity remains the sector’s main constraint. The Botswana National Productivity Centre (BNPC) reports offtake rates at just six percent, well below the 15 percent required for commercial viability. Ongoing droughts, disease, rangeland degradation and poor herd management continue to undermine biological performance and profitability. While government interventions target genetics through breed imports and expanded artificial insemination, industry leaders warn against overreliance on genetic solutions.
“Artificial insemination should not be a replacement for the natural bull,” BNBPU executive secretary Alfred Pilane has said.
Institutional reforms have, however, generated momentum. The Botswana Meat Commission has reduced farmer payment cycles to seven days, while early gains have been recorded in leather processing and organic certification. Access to finance is improving through products such as CEDA’s A-Di-Tsale, but BNPC stresses that credit must be accompanied by improvements in animal health, reproduction, fodder availability and water infrastructure. The sector, BNPC insists, must prioritise performance—higher calving rates, lower mortality, faster weight gain and improved feed efficiency—to deliver real economic value.
Disease risk remains acute. Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in South Africa throughout 2025 heightened concern among farmers in border districts, prompting the Ministry of Agriculture to urge strict adherence to preventive measures to protect herds and export markets.
The start of 2025 marked a clear policy shift in horticulture, as the UDC administration scrapped the BDP-era blanket import ban on fruits and vegetables, describing it as “bad economics” and replaced it with periodic, crop-specific restrictions. The change eased regional trade tensions while continuing to protect local producers during critical seasonal windows.
Setimela notes that the targeted import controls supported a strong production response, with domestic supply expanding and import dependence easing amid sustained demand, government support and rising private investment. Production rose to nearly 89,000 tonnes, meeting about 80 percent of vegetable demand and close to a third of fruit consumption. However, the expansion exposed market inefficiencies. Commercial producers, particularly in the Tuli Block, reported large volumes of unsold produce due to market saturation, weak retail uptake, smuggling, unregulated competition and limited export access, according to the Tuli Block Farmers Association.
Government moves to tighten border controls reignited tensions within SACU, with South African agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo warning that frequent, short-notice import restrictions risk undermining regional integration, despite their intention to support local farmers.
Dairy production returned to policy focus in 2025 as the government advanced a targeted strategy through Milk Valley, a Botswana Development Corporation subsidiary, aimed at lifting local milk production from about 13 percent of domestic demand to more than 60 percent. Progress had stalled for years due to foot-and-mouth disease restrictions. The government partnered with Brazilian suppliers to import 1,000 Girolando cattle, supported by an outgrower feed model centred in Lobatse to strengthen local supply chains. BNPC stresses that success will depend on productivity discipline rather than scale, calling for performance benchmarks such as litres per cow, cost per litre and energy efficiency, supported by digital herd management and milk-testing systems.
The poultry sector remains a key commercial agricultural industry, contributing about P3 billion to GDP and employing more than 25,500 people. It features strong vertical integration, with broiler hatcheries producing over 41 million day-old chicks annually, supporting approximately 52 million kilograms of poultry meat. Layer hatcheries produce around 850,000 point-of-lay hens each year. Feed production capacity stands at about 260,000 tonnes, while egg output reaches 19.6 million dozen annually. Small-scale producers contribute roughly P1 billion to GDP, supported by government financing programmes such as the now-phased-out Chema Chema and Thuo Letlotlo schemes.
Despite its scale, Business Botswana notes that the sector faces vulnerabilities, including limited hatching eggs due to avian influenza outbreaks in South Africa and high mortality rates among small-scale producers. In mid-2025, simultaneous outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease in northern Botswana elevated mortality and biosecurity risks, affecting both producers and tourism.
Citrus has emerged as one of Botswana’s leading agricultural export earners, with output at Selebi-Phikwe Citrus rising from about 5,000 tonnes in its inaugural 2024 season to more than 20,000 tonnes in 2025. The bulk of production is exported to the European Union, the Middle East, Canada and South Africa. However, the sector remains exposed to external trade risks, with uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and AGOA renewal reinforcing the need for diversified markets, despite the United States being identified as a key export destination.
Industrial hemp and medicinal cannabis have emerged as new agricultural segments, with 2025 marking the start of government-led policy and institutional development for commercialisation. A new legal framework, including the Cannabis Act and amendments to narcotics laws, enables controlled pilot cultivation, scheduled to begin in December 2025.
Agricultural productivity remains the sector’s defining challenge, with no clear consensus on solutions despite its central role in achieving sector targets. The 2025 IMD World Competitiveness Report ranks Botswana 67th out of 69 countries for worker motivation, highlighting widespread human-capital weaknesses in agriculture. Farmers cite absenteeism, livestock neglect, poor discipline and substance abuse among workers. These challenges are compounded by poor working conditions, low wages and limited training, creating a cycle in which low motivation entrenches poor performance and weak productivity.
Climate change remains a critical threat, with recurrent droughts and unpredictable rainfall increasingly undermining crop and livestock production. The 2024 El Niño drought devastated cereal output and resulted in more than 16,000 livestock deaths, alongside wildfires that burned over 850,000 hectares. Despite these shocks, many farmers—particularly smallholders—lack awareness and adaptive capacity due to traditional beliefs and low literacy levels.
In response, Botswana is strengthening climate finance frameworks, with the National Development Bank nearing accreditation to the Climate Change Adaptation Fund and ongoing engagement with the Green Climate Fund. A National Carbon Market Framework is under development, supported by the World Bank and GIZ, aiming to leverage Botswana’s natural assets in global carbon markets. Capacity-building initiatives with UNDP are helping stakeholders develop and trade carbon credits, with the potential to support diversification and rural livelihoods.
According to Setimela, reforms should prioritise sustainability and fintech solutions to improve smallholder access to climate finance.
“By combining demonstrated climate-smart successes, institutional readiness and proactive governance reforms, Botswana’s agriculture can position itself as a compelling destination for climate finance,” he said.
Overall, financing in agriculture has improved, particularly for large commercial farms and agribusinesses seeking funding for expansion, mechanisation and climate adaptation. However, significant gaps persist for emerging and small-scale farmers constrained by limited collateral, weak credit histories and poor access to financial services.
Setimela highlighted key financing gaps, including limited smallholder finance, rural infrastructure disparities, high input costs and market volatility. He said youth-led and emerging farmers require tailored financial products, subsidies and capacity-building support to improve creditworthiness and adopt climate adaptation tools. While commercial lending and climate finance are advancing, small-scale farmers, he emphasised, require deeper inclusion through improved digital access and risk mitigation to fully benefit from financing opportunities.
Lending appetite for agriculture in 2025 remains stable and growing, with the Bank of Botswana reporting steady growth in commercial credit. Support continues for non-financial corporate lending, including agriculture. Financiers such as Absa say they are focusing on value-chain investments across primary production and secondary processing, reflecting a balanced, value-chain-driven lending approach.
Looking ahead to 2026, Botswana’s agricultural sector faces significant disruption. Climate stress from droughts and erratic weather is expected to tighten lending where resilience is weak. At the same time, renewables and climate-smart technologies—such as solar irrigation and precision farming—are expected to gain momentum through targeted financing. Digital tools, including e-services and satellite data, will enhance risk assessment and credit access. Commodity price volatility will continue to shape markets, while green finance criteria, including ESG compliance and impact metrics, will increasingly influence lending decisions.
According to Setimela, financiers such as Absa will prioritise value-chain integration, with emphasis on processing, contracts and aggregation to secure credit flows.
“The bank’s appetite will favour agribusinesses that demonstrate resilience, embrace technology and show strong value-chain integration, while traditional, climate-vulnerable operations may face reduced financing,” he said.
