As the government announces the commissioning of its first semi-knock-down electric vehicle (EV) assembly plant, the focus must shift toward establishing fundamental support systems.
Without significant consumer interest and effective policy frameworks, this ambitious endeavor could remain a distant dream.
Electric vehicles are a niche form of transportation, even in some of the most advanced economies. For instance, in Norway, only 20% of all vehicles are electric. With limited demand for EVs and a lack of established charging infrastructure, doubts linger over the viability of this initiative, raising concerns that it may not come to fruition.
President Mokgweetsi Masisi heralded the opening of Botswanaโs first electric vehicle assembly facility as a step toward sustainable transportation, promising a transformation of the countryโs mobility landscape. However, as the facility was unveiled, it became clear that Botswana has much groundwork to cover. Questions quickly arose about whether the facility would remain operational beyond the upcoming election season. Masisi pledged to position Botswana as a regional leader in electric mobility, though talks with potential clientsโboth locally and regionallyโare ongoing. The president’s vision is for Botswana to sell EVs to the rest of Africa.
According to Statista, the electric vehicle market in Africa is projected to grow at an annual rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 8.87%, reaching an estimated market volume of US$313.3 million by 2029. By then, unit sales of EVs in Africa are expected to total 3,680 vehicles.
Professor Shedden Masupe, CEO of the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation (BITRI), outlined the five-year journey that led to this milestone. He emphasised that BITRIโs efforts have centered around the governmentโs objectives to reduce carbon emissions, enhance energy security, and build a self-reliant, eco-friendly transport ecosystem benefiting both urban and rural communities.
One of the key challenges in establishing this program, according to Masupe, was acquiring the necessary intellectual property (IP) for local production. Although BITRI initially sought partnerships with local companies to facilitate knowledge and technology transfer, these efforts were unsuccessful. โDue to time constraints, we decided not to reinvent the wheel and instead sought international partners willing to transfer their IP to Botswana,โ said Masupe.
After negotiations, BITRI secured partnerships with two international companies: CHTC, a specialist in bus manufacturing, and Skywell, an SUV manufacturer. These agreements have enabled BITRI to assemble vehicles locally according to theย government, and the program has already trained 150 technicians in electric vehicle assembly and retrofitting.
The government claims the facility can produce three vehicles a day, having already retrofitted two sedans and a pickup, with more vehicles planned. Parts for 50 electric vehicles and 30 buses have been procured, though the government says it is awaiting shipments from China.
While the demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continues to grow globally, market share gains have slowed. According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), BEV light-duty market share is projected to rise from 11% in 2023 to 13% in 2024, down from the initial forecast of 15%. WPIC attributes this slowdown not only to broader market weakness but rather to consumers opting for more affordable combustion engines or hybrid options.
Despite this, Masisi reiterated that Botswanaโs focus remains on fully electric vehicles. He emphasised that market forces would guide future decisions, including the possibility of expanding into hybrid vehicles.
Policy and Consumer Challenges
Governments worldwide have introduced policies and incentives to encourage EV adoption, such as tax breaks and investments in charging infrastructure. For example, the Chinese government has provided substantial subsidies for EV purchases, making them more affordable to consumers. China is the largest market for battery electric vehicles, accounting for roughly 60 percent of global sales. However, concerns about battery life and maintenance have made some consumers skeptical of EVs compared to traditional gasoline vehicles. While Masisi has promoted home charging solutions, the lack of widespread public charging stations in Botswana raises concerns about “range anxiety.” The government has yet to reveal plans to address this issue.
Currently, Botswana remains predominantly a gasoline vehicle market, with only a handful of electric cars in circulation. In the first quarter of 2024, a total of 10,534 vehicles were registered for the first timeโa decline of 8.7 percent from the 11,540 vehicles registered in the previous quarter. Of these, 72.9 percent were passenger cars, and vans accounted for 12.1 percent. Motorcycles made up just 0.3percent. While registrations declined for most vehicle types compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, vans saw an increase of 30.5 percent, and buses grew by 6 percent.
The path forward
As Botswana experiences rapid urbanisation, the demand for sustainable transportation solutions to reduce congestion and pollution has grown. The governmentโs e-mobility program, led by BITRI, aims to address both climate change and urbanisation challenges. By reducing Botswanaโs carbon footprint, improving air quality, and creating a more efficient transport system, this program offers a promising path forward.
Minister of Communications, Knowledge, and Technology Thulagano Segokgo emphasisedthat the program is not just about technological advancement but also about improving the lives of citizens by ensuring access to clean, affordable, and efficient transportation. โBy investing in electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, and sustainable energy sources, we are laying the groundwork for a greener, smarter Botswana,โ said Segokgo.
Balancing sustainability with economic realities
It’s important to recognise that Africaโs overall contribution to global carbon emissions is minimal, accounting for less than 4%. For the first time in history, Africa has the lowest risk of global threats, considered the highest global risk.
This is evidenced by its stance towards coal mining. Botswana government continues to invest in coal, even as more than 200 predominantly Western financiers have adopted policies restricting investment in coal mining or coal-fired power plants. The Minerals Development Company Botswana (MDCB), which holds stakes in several mining companies on behalf of the government, remains the primary funder of Minergy Limited, a coal miner listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE).
President Masisi champions the e-mobility initiative as a testament to Botswanaโs commitment to sustainable technologies. He noted that BITRI had collaborated with Ali Boat to produce Botswanaโs first electric boat, underscoring the country’s broader commitment to innovation. โThis is the first-level assembly facility, and as we secure further investment, we plan to automate operations and scale up production,โ said Masisi.
He stressed the need for competitiveness, stating, โWe must produce the best, the fastest, and the most cost-effective products.โ He assured the public that challenges encountered in previous automotive assembly ventures, such as with Hyundai, would be addressed to ensure success this time around.
Despite this optimism, the long-term viability of the initiative remains uncertain. By press time, Segokgo had not responded to questions raised by this publication.
