Southern African agriculture is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, with Botswana farmers now exposed to two simultaneous external risks: the growing probability of an El Niño weather cycle and persistent cost pressures linked to global geopolitical tensions.
Disruptions associated with the Iran conflict are compounding the situation. El Niño typically brings hotter and drier-than-normal conditions across the region, increasing the likelihood of drought and below-normal rainfall.
Projections suggest the La Niña weather phenomenon, which brought above-normal rainfall across summer crop-growing areas of South Africa and much of Southern Africa and supported higher crop yields, has ended.
While economists say there is no immediate food crisis, they caution that weather patterns heading into the 2026/27 agricultural season warrant close monitoring, especially following the region’s recent exposure to severe drought conditions.
According to Botswana Meteorological Services, climate indicators suggest a shift in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle over the coming months. In its latest seasonal outlook, the agency said ENSO conditions are currently neutral but are expected to transition toward El Niño between mid-2026 and the start of the 2026/27 summer season.
The forecast indicates neutral conditions are likely to persist through the April-June 2026 period, with an approximately 80 percent probability. However, models increasingly point to El Niño development between May and July 2026, with an estimated probability of around 61 percent, potentially strengthening later in the year.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has similarly projected the emergence of an El Niño event from mid-2026, noting that such conditions typically influence global temperature and rainfall distribution patterns. In Southern Africa, El Niño phases have historically been associated with suppressed rainfall during the October-to-March rainy season, which is critical for rain-fed agriculture.
For Botswana, where much of crop production depends on seasonal rainfall rather than irrigation, the timing of a potential El Niño is particularly significant. The 2026/27 summer season coincides with key planting and growing phases for staple grains, including maize and sorghum.
A weaker or delayed rainy season, depending on its severity, could directly affect yields, reduce harvest volumes and increase reliance on imports, placing additional pressure on already strained food supply chains and contributing to higher staple food prices.
At the same time, farmers face mounting cost pressures from global geopolitical developments, including disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets linked to instability involving Iran. Fertilizer prices, in particular, are sensitive to fluctuations in natural gas and crude oil prices, which tend to rise during periods of geopolitical tension.
According to Keith Jeffries, economist at Econsult, rising global fertilizer prices linked to the conflict will have a longer-term impact on the arable farming sector, mainly during the upcoming 2026/27 season.
“In the short term, it is fortunate that Southern Africa is expecting a bumper maize harvest, which should mean that prices will stay relatively low during the current year,” he said in the Econsult Review Report for the first quarter of 2026.
The risk is not confined to Botswana. Much of Southern Africa shares similar climatic vulnerability because of its reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Countries including South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique are all exposed to ENSO-related rainfall variability.
This regional overlap in risk is particularly significant because it limits neighbouring countries’ ability to offset domestic shortages through intra-regional trade during drought periods. In El Niño years, multiple countries often experience below-average harvests simultaneously, tightening regional supply.
Food inflation therefore tends to accelerate across Southern Africa during strong El Niño cycles, driven by reduced domestic production and increased import dependence.
The current outlook comes less than two years after a severe drought affected Botswana and much of Southern Africa in 2024. During that season, rainfall between January and March failed, resulting in widespread crop failure across key agricultural zones.
In Botswana, the drought reduced cereal output, with Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data showing sorghum production fell to 30,000 tonnes, down 16.3 percent, while maize production dropped to 10,000 tonnes, a 69.5 percent decline. The downturn increased reliance on grain imports and strategic food reserves.
Livestock farmers were also affected by deteriorating grazing conditions and rising feed costs, pushing beef farmers across the country into a financial crisis.
